There is a danger politics will remain stalled for some time to come, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor

And so it is coming to pass: Sinn Féin and the DUP driving forward, the SDLP in reverse, the Ulster Unionists in neutral, and still a possibility that when the final vote is counted Mr Peter Robinson or Mr Martin McGuinness might be standing on top of the victor's podium, and not Mr David Trimble.

That's what today primarily is about: whether Sinn Féin, the DUP or the Ulster Unionists will take the chequered flag. There is much high drama left in this election.

At the time of writing the DUP, which topped the poll in terms of first preferences, and Sinn Féin appear favourites to win most seats, but nothing is certain. How the transfers are distributed today could yet yield some surprises.

Certainly, there will be one major change in the next executive and assembly, if they ever sit: the SDLP will no longer be entitled to the deputy first minister post. As for who would be the next first minister, well, that's still a contest between Mr Robinson, Mr Trimble and Mr McGuinness, assuming that Mr Gerry Adams will stand aside for his party's chief negotiator.

However, the huge hurdle here is that neither the UUP nor the DUP would tolerate the former IRA man as first minister. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, seems to have been right last month when he said the elections would lead to "a mess".

We won't know the overall outcome until some time this evening, barring recounts, but what is also clear is that the political geography of Northern Ireland is radically transformed.

We may be entering a period of Christmas panto-type politics. "Oh, yes, we will renegotiate the Belfast Agreement," says the DUP. "Oh, no, you won't," say Sinn Féin, the SDLP and the Yes wing of Ulster Unionism.

We are also entering a period of review of the Belfast Agreement. The only possible compromise here is that the DUP interprets the review as a renegotiation while the rest say it is a review.

But who will talk to whom? There is a great danger that politics will remain stalled for some time to come.

That was evident from one vignette involving the Rev Ian Paisley and a UTV journalist, Ivan Little, who despite his surname is as tall as the Big Man. On live television Little had the temerity to ask Dr Paisley if he would talk to Sinn Féin.

The DUP leader actually grabbed Little by the lapels and shouted into his face: "I am not talking to Sinn Féin, and my party is not talking to Sinn Féin, and anyone who talks to Sinn Féin will be out of my party."

People may talk about Dr Paisley's frail appearance and the greater do-a-deal nature of DUP pragmatists such as Mr Robinson and Mr Nigel Dodds, but here was the DUP leader emphasising who is the boss.

And he isn't for parleying with Mr Adams. The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister will assess the results in Cardiff tonight. The Northern Secretary, Mr Paul Murphy, will speak to the parties over the weekend, assessing the possibility of resurrecting devolution.

The Taoiseach, Prime Minister and Northern Secretary tend to be optimists, but if they saw that piece of riveting television between Little and Large they will be conscious that, while nothing is impossible, reconciling the irreconcilable probably will take us into next year and possibly beyond.

Sinn Féin and the DUP are the big winners in this election. The SDLP was hit hard, while the Ulster Unionists are hanging in. Dr Paisley is a contented leader; at last his party with 26 per cent of the vote is ahead of the UUP, which polled 23 per cent. That's some last hurrah for Dr Paisley.

Still, considering the circumstances it was no disgrace for Mr Trimble, but he needs transfers to work to his advantage to be ahead today. In the Westminster and local government elections of 2001 Sinn Féin was about one percentage point in front of the SDLP. Now, with 24 per cent against 17 per cent, it is seven points in the lead.

In 1998 the SDLP held 24 seats against 18 for Sinn Féin. This time Sinn Féin appeared reasonably sure of 24 and was competing seriously for a few more. The SDLP will do well to remain around 20; a possible gain in Strangford and Mr Danny O'Connor possibly holding his "miracle marginal" seat in East Antrim would provide some gloss to a bad day for SDLP leader Mr Mark Durkan. Even in Mr Durkan's Foyle constituency Sinn Féin was nibbling at his heels. He badly needs some surprise gains to cheer him up. The DUP as predicted vacuumed up the independent anti-agreement unionists such as Mr Cedric Wilson and Mr Fraser Agnew, but it will take until this evening to determine whether it can steal seats from Mr Trimble. At the time of writing the Trimble-versus-Paisley tussle appeared neck-and-neck, but remember that the DUP entered the assembly with 20 seats, the UUP with 28. That's an impressive jump for the DUP. Sometime this evening it and Ulster Unionists could be both holding around 28 seats apiece, or one could be slightly ahead of the other.

Sinn Féin will also be there or thereabouts. If it's the DUP then, bearing in mind Dr Paisley's comment, direct rule could be with us for a long time to come. And even if the UUP can see off the challenge from both the DUP and Sinn Féin, and remain as the senior Northern party, one must consider the Jeffrey Donaldson anti-agreement rump of the UUP, which is unlikely to be party to any pragmatic deal with Sinn Féin. Most of the election was fought on the usual green-versus-orange battleground. Alliance and the Women's Coalition were squeezed, and the Alliance leader, Mr David Ford, in South Antrim was under pressure to hold his seat against fierce opposition from Sinn Féin.

One candidate who certainly bucked the tribal trend was Dr Kieran Deeny, who not only was returned campaigning to maintain acute services for South Tyrone Hospital in Omagh, but topped the poll against the local Sinn Féin MP, Mr Pat Doherty.

Some well-known faces will have disappeared from frontline politics in Northern Ireland when the counting is finished. Dr Joe Hendron of the SDLP lost his West Belfast seat,Professor Monica McWilliams and Ms Jane Morrice of the Women's Coalition appeared in trouble, while Mr Billy Hutchinson of the Progressive Unionist Party conceded defeat.

Much more excitement today.

©The Irish Times